Hung Parliament – 8th June 2016

2The Wicked Witch gets a Hung Parliament

The Independent has this on its front page:  “Mayhem: Britain and Brexit in disarray as PM’s election gamble backfires spectacularly“.

Despite all the newspaper kerfuffle, You-Gov’s new prediction method producing a hung parliament as published over the last few days proved the more accurate:

Party Last Parliament Nos + Provisional New Result Projection – Electoral Calculus Projection – You Gov on 7 June 2017
Conservative (330) (318) 361 (+ 31) 302 ( – 28)
Labour (229) (262)* 216 ( – 13) 269 (+ 40)
Lib Dem (9) (12) 3 ( – 6) 12 (+ 3)
UKIP (1) (0) 0 0 (-1)
Green (1) (1) 1 1
SNP (54) (35) 48 ( – 6) 44 ( – 10)
Plaid Cymru (3) (4) 3 2 (- 1)
DUP  (10) (10) 18 18
Other 2 0 2
Majority Con  72 Hung

* Additional seat added because of recount in Kensington & Chelsea

Note:  The results in Northern Ireland have affected the UK-wide picture.  Seinn Fein now have 7 seats (+3) They will not sit in Parliament.  Therefore the number of MP’s in the UK Parliament will decrease.  That reduces the number of seats a Party needs to have a majority: The number of  seats in the House of Commons are:  650  – less  the 7 Sinn Féin members who will not sit  = 643.

With 643 sitting members, an overall  majority is  323 seats or more.   There is now but one seat undecided (Kensington & Chelsea).  The  The Conservatives can (just) survive with DUP support – but at what price?

The Torygraph Telegraph has this: “Who are the DUP and will they demand a soft Brexit to prop up the Tories?

The Guardian has this review of the Tory press: “Daily Mail and Sun turn on Theresa May for election ‘gamble’ – Newspapers that heavily backed prime minister and attacked Jeremy Corbyn say she has ‘blown it’”.

The New Statesman does the same: “How the right-wing press has turned on Theresa May – As the Tories fail to win a majority, the papers have changed their tune.

The Conservative Home website has this: “Tory MPs. If May gets back to Downing Street, her advisers must go. The Cabinet must take charge. Her Brexit plan will be overhauled.

The Conservative Woman has this: “Cerberus: May’s authority is fatally damaged.

Even The Times has something  disparaging:  “May has no one to blame but herself – The prime minister’s hubris, an addiction to short-term thinking and a surge in the youth vote has sealed her fate” (£)” which includes these comments:-

  • There is a strong critique contained in the difficult night for the Conservative Party and it needs to listen, to be humble, less arrogant and less inclined to hubris.
  • There is also, it has to be said, a vindication for Mr Corbyn and his team who have performed far better than most people thought he could. The silent minority of those who do not vote appear to have been inspired to vote Labour and that is an achievement of the first order. Mr Corbyn often likes to say that he is going nowhere and commentators often joked that it was true. Well, they are not laughing now. Mr Corbyn has won the right to stay on as leader and MPs who do not like that prospect are stuck with him. He has had the night of his life.
  • The opposite applies to Mrs May whose campaign to be prime minister was a thoroughgoing calamity. Her authority is shot to pieces. Even if she can cobble together a government, there is now likely to be another general election in the autumn and Boris Johnson will be installing phone lines in his leadership office by this time tomorrow. She has turned herself into the Lady Jane Grey of British politics. It is a rank humiliation of the kind that it is hard to recall.
  • timesbrexitclownsMichael Gove, Mr Johnson, Liam Fox and Mr Davis need to reflect on what they have done. If it is beyond such arrogant people to contemplate the mess they have landed the country in, we might appeal to their amour propre  and point out the appalling mess they have made of their own party.

The Times article ends with these remarks:-

  • We all thought that Mr Corbyn and his merry band of ex-Marxists were the ideologues in this contest but we were wrong.
  • A ludicrous commitment to a child-like conception of national sovereignty has taken the Conservative Party to the brink of humiliation. That much we can all bear and indeed it would take a heart of stone not to laugh at what happened to them.
  • What these fools have done to Britain we should not forgive and, if and when there is another election, whoever succeeds Mrs May should be duly punished.

ww-westminster

The Wicked Witch of Westminster is not quite dead yet.  But there were some heartfelt comments on the Conservative Home site and The Wicked Witch and her Brexit Clowns should take note of them:-

(1) “Most of the Parliamentary Party are Remainers, now they need to say what they really think.

(2) “Out with the Brexiteers and back in with sensible people. May has paid an entirely predictable price for completely ignoring what half the country thought about the EU and trying to polarise opinion around the view of 20% that it all meant a hard Brexit. The Leave vote never meant that. Her stance was an obvious, elementary and huge mistake. If she does not correct that and go for EEA membership with full freedom of movement, we will within a short time have Corbyn as PM“.

This Guardian Cartoon says it all:   “Steve Bell’s If … Theresa May’s election blast-off “

 

 

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