Mrs May’s Brexit Election Pt 3 – 6-7 June

Polling  – 6th June

The Independent has this: “General Election Poll: Labour one point behind Tory party in latest poll with two days to go – Survation poll suggests election race is neck and neck“.

Other recently released polls have different results: Ipsos Mori has a Conservative lead of 5 points while  ComRes puts the Conservative lead at 12 points.  Generally pollsters say that their polling predictions have a 3  point margin of error either way.  What the polls do suggest is that Teresa May personal approval ratings are down and Jeremy Corbyn’s are up.

Polling – 7th June

The Independent has this: “Election 2017: Record number of people register to vote on deadline day – Jeremy Corbyn’s party has traditionally attracted more support from young voters“.

  • Record numbers of people signed up to vote on deadline day before registrations closed, with more than 600,000 names added to the electoral roll in the final 24 hours;
  • The figures point to a sharp increase in young voters adding their names to the register, with around two-thirds – 453,000 – of the new voters to sign up on deadline day aged between 18 and 34. 
  • New young voters are expected to boost the Labour vote.

According to Reuters: “May’s Conservatives on course for bigger majority – poll”  The article relies on an Opinium poll which puts the Conservatives at 43% and Labour at 36% – down one point.  The article, however,  points out that Survation only gives the Conservatives a single point advantage.

Amusingly, Reuters also has this: “Butchers give May the cold shoulder at campaign stop

ww-westminsterBritish Prime Minister Theresa May was met with a chorus of boos and shouts of “vote Labour” as she visited London’s biggest meat market in the early hours of the final day of the election campaign.”

The Independent had this towards the end of the day: “Election poll latest: “Theresa May will win biggest Tory landslide since Thatcher, final survey predicts – Exclusive: Eve-of-vote poll by ComRes for The Independent gives Ms May a 10-point lead, indicating an 74-seat majority“.

The Evening Standard has this: “UK General Election polls: How and why Labour closed the gap on the Tories“.  The article makes the very valid point that a lot is going to depend on turnout – especially young voters 71% of whom support Labour.

YouGov has this interesting analysis of how voters see Corbyn and May: “Corbyn vs May: how the public sees the two leaders“.  In essence, the conclusion is that people are increasingly seeing Teresa May in a negative light.

Projections of the Outcome

Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus and You-Gov have the projections set out in a table below.  The Electoral Calculus projection is  based on the polling  25 May 2017 to 06 Jun 2017, sampling  13,547 people.

YouGov has introduced a new methodology: “Introducing YouGov’s 2017 election model” and it indicates the probability of a hung parliament.  YouGov relies on  8,664 interviews conducted on 6th June as part of 55,707 interviews in the previous seven days.

Electoral Calculus says this about the new YouGov methodology:-

Electoral Calculus salutes YouGov for their modern approach of combining polls and models to get richer and more insightful predictions. We will know next week whether their approach has got it exactly right this time. If it’s right, then they will be justly celebrated. But even if it isn’t, it is still the right thing to do and the method can be refined in future years to be more accurate. One day, maybe all polling will be like this.”

YouGov’s new Election Centre also seeks to predict the results for each constituency.

What the  Calculations Show

Seats in the House of Commons are:  650  – less expected Sinn Féin members (who do not sit) –  4 = 646.  With 646 sitting members, a majority is  324 seats or more

Party & Last Parliament Nos  Projection – Electoral Calculus Projection – You Gov on 7 June 2017
Conservative (330) 361 (+ 31) 302 ( – 28)
Labour (229) 216 ( – 13) 269 (+ 40)
Lib Dem (9) 3 ( – 6) 12 (+ 3)
UKIP (1) 0 0 (-1)
Green (1) 1 1
SNP (54) 48 ( – 6) 44 ( – 10)
Plaid Cymru (3) 3 2 (- 1)
Ulster Unionists (10) 18 18
Other 2 0 2
Majority Con  72 Hung

ww-westminsterIf the Electoral Calculus projection is right, then the Wicked Witch will be home and dry.     Lord Ashcroft who polls for the Conservatives updated his predictions on June 2nd – “Ashcroft Model update: new potential majorities and seat-by-seat estimates“:

“It is important to remember that we are dealing with probabilities not predictions, and that the result could well fall either side of our central estimates. In the scenario where turnout matches that of 2015, the highest likelihood (35%) is of a Conservative majority between 60 and 79, with a one-in-four chance of a majority between 80 and 99 and a 12% chance of a majority of 100 to 119. But if everyone who says they are certain to vote actually does so, the biggest chance (35%) is of a Tory majority between 40 and 59.”

For the Conservative Party,  a majority of 72 would vindicate the Wicked Witch’s decision to call an election prior to the Brexit negotiations.  However,  it might not be sufficient to enable her to ignore the closet UKIP-supporting  faction on the Conservative benches.

John Rentoul, the Independent’s Chief Political Correspondent writes: “Election 2017: Hung parliament? Tory win? Corbyn as PM? The six possible scenarios“.

On the latest YouGov projection, there may be a hung parliament.  What might that mean?  See this in the Spectator: “Election 2017: what happens if there’s a hung parliament?“.  The explanation given is good – and so are these key conclusions:-

  • If the Conservatives had sufficient numbers to be able to govern with support from the Ulster Unionists, and/or with another party (which is very unlikely).. In that situation, there would be a Conservative Prime Minister, but it wouldn’t be Theresa May. She would have pissed away a small but workable Conservative majority on an election she didn’t have to call.
  • The most likely beneficiary would be David Davis, as he is acceptable to the Brexiteers, and, equally importantly, is getting on in years.
  •  But that’s quite unlikely, because the most plausible hung parliament scenario is this:hung parliament – Labour minority government”.

Labour is  projected by YouGov to achieve 269 seats as opposed to the 229 in the last Parliament.   But 269 seats are not a majority.  Labour would need the support of other parties.  That would not necessarily have to take the form of a coalition – a confidence and supply arrangement would suffice.  It would require the support of all the other parties bar the Ulster Unionists.

According to the Worcester News, the people of the town of Bewdley are planning to erect a statue to Stanley Baldwin and were hoping to invite the PM to unveil it some time in December: “Prime Minister Theresa May MP may unveil statue of three-times PM Stanley Baldwin in Bewdley“.   Whether or not  the Wicked Witch will still be the Prime Minister at the time of the unveiling will be determined within the next few days.

 It is worth remembering that in 1924 Stanley Baldwin was defeated on the King’s Speech vote.  He resigned the next day and the first ever Labour Government (Ramsey MacDonald) took office – but only for nine months.

What went wrong for Teresa May ?

Tom Goodenough writes this in the Spectator: “Has Theresa May’s strong point become her Achilles heel?

The Independent has this:  “Majority of British voters agree with Corbyn’s claim UK foreign policy increases risk of terrorism – Interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya have made atrocities on UK soil more likely, majority of public believe.”   According to the article 75% of voters polled agreed with Jeremy Corbyn’s views on this subject.  That was before the latest atrocities in London.

Also this: “Theresa May’s election campaign is in big trouble when Jeremy Corbyn can turn national security into a strength – The cutting of 20,000 police officers on the Prime Minister’s watch has become a millstone around her neck – and one that the Labour leader is using to his advantage“.

The Guardian has this: “Terrorism top of undecided voters’ concerns after London attack – While the political response has become the most important issue for people in our six key constituencies, views differ on which party they trust to tackle it“.

The Independent has this: “Election 2017: Whitehall is now preparing for a hung parliament, say reports“.   Of course, the mere fact that the civil service is preparing for the possibility does not guarantee that it will happen.

The Guardian has this: “Let’s hope a hung parliament can halt the Brexit disaster – If the SNP or Lib Dems end up holding all the cards come Friday morning, the economic catastrophe of leaving the EU could be averted“.

The Evening Standard has this: “UK General Election polls and odds: Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour slashes Tory lead“.  Key points

  • some polls show the Conservatives’ lead being cut by 16 points in the last month
  • a Survation poll found the Tories on 41.5 per cent and Labour on 40.4 per cent
  • a complex constituency-by-constituency estimate by YouGov suggested the Conservatives could emerge with just 304 seats in the Commons after Thursday’s General Election – down 26 from the end of the previous parliament
  • a YouGov poll for the Evening Standard last week found more voters in London say they think Labour’s leader would make a better Prime Minister than Mrs May. The poll on Thursday gave the Labour a huge 17-point lead over the Conservatives in London

Iron-May-smile-v2

In short, Mr Corbyn has managed to out-campaign the Wicked Witch and to show her up as the Iron Clad leader of the Nasty Party.  Two days from now we will know the outcome of the election.

Should Mr Corbyn do well  in the Election,  Teresa May, the Wicked Witch of Westminster, can only blame herself, her colleagues, her advisers, and (of course) the odious Lynton Crosby.


     Polls open at 7.00 am tomorrow and close at 10.00 pm

The Exit Poll Results will come shortly thereafter

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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