Mrs May’s Brexit Election – Update 4

The Wicked Witch Devours UKIP

ww-westminsterHaving already broken a long established convention that local and national elections should be held separately, Teresa May, the Wicked Witch of Westminster has taken UKIP out of mainstream politics.

The BBC writes (impartially)  “Local elections: UKIP suffers big losses across England“:-  In brief:-

  • In total, UKIP lost 145 councillors and secured one seat;
  • It was wiped out in Lincolnshire, losing 13 seats, while all its nine representatives in Essex were defeated;
  • UKIP did win one seat on Lancashire County Council in a ward previously held by the British National Party;
  • In Lincolnshire, where UKIP Leader Paul Nuttall is a general election candidate for Boston and Skegness, UKIP went from being the official opposition to having no seats at all with the Conservatives taking 23 seats
  • UKIP also lost seats in Hampshire, the Isle of Wight and East Sussex

UKIP2UKIP’s current leader Paul Nuttall, a former Conservative candidate in Sefton who defected to UKIP in 2004, the current MEP for North West England, and who became UKIP leader in 2016,  issued this statement:    “We are victims of our own success but a bright future still lays ahead“.

He included these assertions:

  • Our electoral success over recent years was a key driver in forcing the Conservatives to embrace our cause under a new prime minister who was campaigning for a Remain vote in the referendum a year ago.
  • Mrs May’s public dispute with the EU in recent days – which led to her speaking about standing up to Brussels in an eve-of-poll statement in Downing Street – was particularly fortuitously timed for the Conservatives
  • If the price of Britain leaving the EU is a Tory advance after taking up this patriotic cause then it is a price UKIP is prepared to pay

The New Statesman has this: “Theresa May has swallowed up Ukip – and she’s heading for a big majority” which makes these points:-

  • By donning Nigel Farage’s clothes, Theresa May has managed to take his votes, and with them, the key to Downing Street. 
  • The Tories are on  course for a blowout victory on 8 June. Its main plank is the almost wholesale absorption of the Ukip vote into the Conservative voteshare. Ukip were wiped off the map yesterday, and their votes – including much of the large number that originally voted Labour – went to the Tories.

Needless to say, the Conservatives are very happy with the outcome.  Forget the articles in the press by highly paid hacks – the editor of the influential Conservative website, Conservative Home, and former Member of Parliament for Wycombe, Paul Goodman writes this: “May’s Great Patriotic Election is now in full swing“.   He notes the outcomes and the strategy and concludes:-

All in all, there is reason at present to think that the Tory majority will be increased significantly if not substantially – maybe even sensationally.  At any rate, that’s what senior Ministers are saying in private, even if they are saying the opposite in public.

Borrowed Clothes usually do not fit

The problem with the strategy is that it depends on selling to the country a Brexit scenario borrowed from  UKIP which is not in the best interests of the United Kingdom and which has not been the policy of the Conservative Party.

If we look back at our page, The Conservative Difficulty,  it will be seen that immediately prior to the Referendum, 75% of the MP’s in Parliament were in favour of remaining in the European Union and only 25% in favour of leaving.  Of the 25% who wished to leave  – 146 in total – 130 of the 146 were Conservative MP’s.  The Cameron Referendum was a mistake and was not binding.  It was right for him to resign but it was and is wrong for the Witch to borrow UKIP’s clothes and proceed to wreck our economy to give effect to a UKIP Brexit.

This article in the Financial Times is relevant: “How the UK government is making a successful Brexit difficult“.

See also this in the Independent: “EU demands Brexit amnesty for three million citizens in UK, including people with no proof of residency  – We will not discuss our future relationship with the UK until the 27 member states are reassured that all citizens will be treated properly and humanely

The Guardian has this cartoon by Martin Rowson on the local elections:

Mrs Saturn eating her children

 

 

 

Mrs May’s Brexit Election – Update 3

A Bit Brassy and thinks she’s a Sovereign

Theresa May Easter HatThe Torygraph Telegraph has this:  “Cracked, warped and missing middles: thousands of new £1 coins ‘have major production flaws’” .  It is funny that this should come to light just now.  One of the problems facing the country at the moment is that  Teresa May, (aka the Wicked Witch of Westminster) has something in common with her famous predecessor, the late Baroness Thatcher.  She certainly has one thing in common with the late Iron Lady:  “She is a bit brassy and thinks she’s a sovereign“.    See the earlier post:  The Wicked Witch and her Easter Message.

Way back in January of this year, the Economist had this to say about the Wicked Witch of Westminster’s approach:  “Theresa May opts for a hard Brexit – The government promises a “truly global Britain” after Brexit. Is that plausible?”  As the article points out, her objective was:-

  • to leave the European Union
  • to take back control of immigration (no more free movement)
  • to withdraw from the jurisdiction of foreign courts
  • to withdraw from the EU single market and customs union
  •  to trade with the EU remaining nations as before
  • to make some payments to the EU – but nothing like as before

Unsurprisingly, the Economist’s conclusions were stark:  “Everyone will lose if there is no agreement, but nobody will lose as much as Britain. The country is in no position to bully its way to a cushy deal and EU leaders in no mood to offer one.

ww-westminsterBut that is where the Wicked Witch is proposing to take us and that is why she has called this unnecessary election.  She wishes to have an increased majority so that she can push her insane proposals through Parliament.

The Independent has this on immigration issues: “Two-thirds of people don’t believe Theresa May will achieve tens of thousands immigration target – Drop the Target: Poll also finds that four out of five people believe doctors and nurses should be granted special visas allowing them to work in the UK after Brexit“.

The Witch and Mr Toad

As the Guardian reported on the day Article 50 was triggered, a poll showed that a majority of these polled did not support a hard Brexit: “Theresa May faces public backlash over hard Brexit, poll finds – Just 35% of British public in new ICM survey would back Britain leaving the EU without agreement with other states“.

mr-toadThe Witch sought to enlist the support of her good friend Donald Trump (aka Mr Toad) and get a backup US-UK trade deal – see the archived posts for January and February this year.  Well,  things have not turned out quite as Mrs May had hoped.  There is an increasing possibility that Mr Toad might be impeached – see  this in the Independent: “Donald Trump impeachment a ‘real and growing possibility’, says former US labor secretary – Spokesperson says Senator was referring to ‘totality of challenges the President is currently facing‘” – also this in the New York Times “After first 100 days, a President Trump impeachment seems like a safe bet

More importantly, the prospect of a post Brexit UK-US trade deal has rather gone down the drain – see this in the Independent: “Angela Merkel ‘had to explain fundamentals of EU trade to Donald Trump 11 times’ – US President will now reportedly prioritise EU trade deal over post-Brexit agreement with Britain“.

The Brexit Delusion

Simon Tilford,  the Chief  Economist of the Centre for European Reform, has this op-ed in the Guardian:  “Britain’s complacency over Brexit will end in humiliation – France and Germany don’t make the mistake of thinking they would be better off outside the EU. The UK is deluding itself if it thinks it will prosper“.

The by now notorious dinner at No 10 for Mr Junker continues to be commented in the newspapers.

The Guardian has this: “May’s posturing won’t help in ‘bloody difficult’ Brexit negotiations – Theresa May taking on Thatcher’s hardline mantle could bring her domestic election success. But it will also unite the EU bloc in a desire to punish the UK

The Independent has this by Dennis MacShane (a former Europe Minister) : “Leaked details from May’s disastrous dinner with Juncker suggest Brexit could be far worse than anyone imagines –  All of the facts have been available to British journalists writing on Brexit for months. Nothing is new. But with one or two exceptions the entire UK coverage of Brexit is written entirely from a UK-EU point of view .

The article ends with this observation:-

One cannot blame Theresa May and her mono-lingual No 10 team. Not since its 1930s coverage of Germany has the majority of the British media, including the BBC, been so poor in covering the main challenge to Britain’s future in half a century.

If British citizens, businesses, inward investors and even MPs are not told any of the core publicly available facts about the position all 27 EU sovereign governments are taking on Brexit then the final outcome may be far worse than anyone imagines.”

The Guardian has this by Nick Clegg: “The EU knows Theresa May is deluded on Brexit. And soon the Tories will – While the EU 27 defend their national interests, the Brexiteers destroy ours: their vision of economic utopia cannot fend off the cold facts of economic reality“.

An example of how the EU 27 and the Commission will proceed relates to the Brexit bill.  See this in the Financial Times: “Brussels hoists gross Brexit ‘bill’ to €100bn – France and Germany back tougher approach to Britain’s departure obligations“.

The Financial Times also has this about the view of Brexit Secretary David Davis: “David Davis says it is not up to Brussels to set Brexit rules – Brexit secretary says UK is not a supplicant in negotiations

Baroness Helena Kennedy QC writes in the Guardian: “You can’t just cut and run from Europe, Theresa May – it’s illegal – If the prime minister thinks she she can retain the best bits of the European Union without any of the obligations, she really is living in another galaxy“.

An example of how to upset every EU Government is here in the Guardian: “May expected to challenge right of EU citizens to bring family to Britain – EU negotiation guidelines put Brussels and London on collision course over issue of non-European spouses after Brexit“.

If  Prime Minister May thinks she is going to get that past the EU-27 Member States, or the EU Commission,  or the EU Parliament, then one has to consider that she may have succumbed to some kind of delusional “folie de grandeur“, perhaps triggered by the sight of a Polski Sklep shop in her constituency.

State of the Parties

The latest YouGov/Sunday Times voting intention figures show the Conservatives on 44% and Labour on 31%, giving the Tories a 13 point lead (polling for 24-27 April) – Elsewhere the Liberal Democrats are on 11%, with UKIP on 6%. Votes for other parties stand at 8%.  The Scottish figures are : Voting intention (Scotland): SNP 41%, Con 28%, Lab 18% (24-27 Apr).