The Wicked Witch in Trouble?

The Wicked Witch is losing some support

ww-westminsterThe Mail on Sunday’s Political Editor reported: “Tory lead is slashed in half after tax U-turn: Bombshell Mail on Sunday poll shows May plummeting by 11 points …denting hopes of a landslide“.    Oh Dear!

The actual Survation polling questions and answers are here: “Survation’s first General Election Voting Intention poll since Theresa May’s call for a General Election gained parliamentary approval shows the Conservative Party with more than a double-digit lead over Labour.  But, as the Mail article pointed out, Professor John Curtice (who knows about these things) believes the survey still points to a net Conservative gain of some 29 seats.

The Observer had another report:  “Conservatives on course for landslide victory in election, poll suggests – Observer/Opinium survey indicates Tory party has doubled its lead over Labour to 19 points since Theresa May’s announcement“.  The conclusions were:-

  • Tories on 45% (up seven points compared with the previous week), while Labour is down three points on 26%.
  • Support is growing for the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats, who are up four points on 11%.  Backing for the Lib Dems suggests that the party’s clear anti-Brexit strategy is appealing to hardcore Remain voters
  • There has been a dramatic fall in backing for Ukip, which is down five points to 9%, from 14% the week before.

The Financial Times has this: “Blair urges voters to back anti-Brexit candidates — even if Tory – Former Labour prime minister’s intervention enrages leftwing activists“.

The Telegraph has this:  “SNP ‘to lose 10 seats’ to Tories in major blow to Nicola Sturgeon“.  The report appears to be based on Panelbase and  Survation polls.  However, it appears that both polls predicted 2 gains for the Liberal Democrats and one poll thought there might be 3rd gain.  Apparently, the Survation poll  found backing for independence at 47 per cent, with 53 per cent opposed. However, almost 38 per cent said another Tory majority government would make them more likely to back separation.

The Scotsman has this: “Election 2017: Will the SNP sweep Glasgow again?“.  The conclusion reached is: “No matter who is selected, and no matter what happens between now and election day on June 8th, another SNP clean sweep in Glasgow seems almost inevitable“.

The Independent reports: “Brexit opposition reaches record high one week after snap election announcement – While 44 per cent agree with Brexit, the same percentage think leaving the EU would be wrong“.

Preparing for Polling Day

The BBC has this:  “General election 2017: How many people are registering to vote?” According to the report,  some 350,000 people have registered to vote since the election was announced and most of them are younger people.  Let us hope that all  voters readers – especially those who were unable to vote in the Referendum – will  be sure to register this time.  Register

This is where to do the necessary:   https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote

Once one is registered then it is worth learning about how to vote tactically.  The Independent has this: “The spreadsheet for strategic voting against the Tories is now a website

The Website is here:  “How to Vote to Stop the Tories“.

The Witch’s ‘Special Relationship’ with Mr Toad

The Times reports:  “Trump puts EU ahead of Britain in trade queue – Merkel lands Brexit victory for Brussels“.   Oh Dear!

The so-called “special relationship” has always been an issue: – see (1) The Witch and Mr Toad  (2)  Hard Times for the Special Relationship (3) The Witch, Mr Toad and the EU .

mr-toad

It was always to be expected that Mr Toad would be more interested in the trade balances than in the “special relationship” and, as the Times article points out:  “The EU is America’s biggest trading partner: US exports to the bloc last year were worth $270 billion; it imported goods worth $417 billion. In the same period the US exported $55 billion in goods to Britain and imported $54 billion”.

The plain fact is that the survival of the “special relationship”  after the UK joined the EU depended very much on the UK continuing to have influence in Europe as one of the larger members of the European Union.

The French Connection

The Guardian has this:  “European leaders cheer Macron victory in first round of French election – Commission president breaks protocol to join chorus of congratulations for pro-European centrist, who faces far-right Marine Le Pen in second round“.

The Financial Times reports: “Euro and French stocks surge on expectation Macron beats Le Pen – Centrist’s likely success in head-to-head for French presidency eases investor nerves“.

The Telegraph has this: “Why does the French Presidential Election matter to the UK?“.

Unfortunately, is is unlikely to be a rebirth of the  1904 “Entente Cordiale”

 

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