Post Brexit Blues

Summer Holidays

Ministers and MP’s normally try to snatch some time with family and friends at this time of year.  The House of Commons is in recess until 5th September 2016 and nothing much happens until  after the parties have had their conferences (The Conservatives have their Conference in Birmingham between 2-5 October 2016).

But one rather suspects that Teresa May’s Government will be hard pushed to take much time away from their desks because of the complexities of dealing with the outcome of the Referendum bequeathed to them by David Cameron’s administration.

According to Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, there are no fewer than 6 agreements to be negotiated:-

Negotiations and more negotiations, year after year. That will be the main business of Theresa May’s government for the foreseeable future. Britain’s exit from the EU will require at least six interlocking sets of negotiations, and they will take much longer and be far more complicated than most British politicians realise. One negotiation will cover Britain’s exit from the EU, the second a free trade agreement (FTA) on future economic ties, the third interim cover for the British economy before the FTA enters into force, the fourth accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the fifth a set of deals to replace the 53 FTAs that bind the EU and other countries, and the sixth an agreement on co-operation in foreign, defence and security policies.”  See the full article:  Six Brexit Deals that Teresa May Must Strike.

The FT reports:  “Britain’s diplomatic quest for Brexit enters ‘phoney war’ – London and Brussels confront the complexity of divorce talks and the minefield of European elections“.  This article also leads to the conclusion that negotiations are going to take a long time.

Post Brexit Financial Blues

The FT reports:  (1) “Carney expected to slash UK growth forecast close to zero – Indicators of business and consumer confidence have deteriorated sharply”.  (2) “UK factories suffer after Brexit: economist reaction” and (3) “Pound slips on UK’s grim post-Brexit factory data

This is suggesting that there is  post Brexit slow down which may need action (1) by the Bank of England MPC and (2) by the Chancellor in the Autumn Statement.

Second Thoughts

The Daily Mail has its knickers in a twist: “Unelected peers start House of Lords plot to BLOCK Brexit and force a second referendum“. There’s a similar account in the Daily Express.