It is yet to be ascertained whether the Teresa May government will opt for a “Soft Brexit” or a “Hard Brexit” solution.
On Sunday, the Observer had this: “EU considers migration ‘emergency brake’ for UK for up to seven years”.
This development in the EU position was not unexpected (indeed it was the view of Clown Boris (now HM Foreign Secretary) that such an offer would be forthcoming .Such an offer permits a good case to be made either (i) for remaining in the EU, or (ii) for opting for a solution akin to the Norwegian model of single market access.
Ideally, it would be preferable for the UK to opt for a “Remain” solution along these lines because that would permit continued UK involvement in the formulation of single market policy while the Norwegian model involves acceptance of EU legislation without participating in the making of it.
Sebastian Payne writing today in the Financial Times has this: “Theresa May positions herself against ‘hard Brexit’“. The article concludes that Mrs May is laying the groundwork for a more moderate Brexit that will attempt to assuage Leavers and Remainers and that once the best solution emerges, she will attempt to boot out those demanding an instant “Hard Brexit“.
Tory Brexit fanatics threaten a revolt
However, the Sunday Times had this: “Tories warn May of revolt over Brexit lite” (meaning “Soft Brexit”). The same story was also in the Sunday Excess Express: “’We don’t trust her – Theresa May faces Tory revolt if she FAILS to curb migration from EU” and there was a similar story in the Telegraph “Tory MPs react with fury as EU leaders consider UK ’emergency brake’ on free movement”. The Daily Mail also reported the story: “Tory rebels ‘won’t settle for Brexit lite’: MPs hit out at plans to keep access to the single market without full immigration controls“. It is noteworthy that the Daily Mail was the only newspaper to have a headline making it clear that it was only a small minority of Conservative MP’s involved rather than the whole of the Conservative benches – most of whom were pro-Remain. Yet another example of the Tail wagging the Dog.
Names mentioned included the usual suspects: Ian Duncan Smith MP, John Redwood MP, Bill Cash MP and Steve Baker MP. Generally, anyone involved with the man who likes to be referred to as “IDS” is likely to end up In Deep Shit and in this case the “Deep Shit” will adversely affect the many neglected people in deprived areas who voted “Leave” not least because of things IDS did when he was in charge of welfare.
About a month ago, The Scotsman has this on Brexit Lite: “UK could adopt ‘Brexit-lite’ approach of quitting EU“. It was then and remains the best option for giving effect to the result of the referendum which David Cameron so ill-advisedly promised to the Brexiteers.It remains to be seen how the Prime Minister will now deal with the pretensions of the “usual suspects“. Teresa May may well prove to be a lot tougher with back-bench rebels than David Cameron ever was.
Economic Impact of Brexit
Yesterday the Telegraph had this: “UK profit warnings rise to crisis highs amid Brexit uncertainty“. The Financial Times has this: “UK business confidence drops to lowest since financial crisis after Brexit – CBI“. Also this: “Brexit puts third of commercial property deals in doubt“. See also: “Philip Hammond stresses need for ‘positive’ EU response to Brexit“.
Everything is going to be a tad volatile until the UK-EU negotiations are further advanced.