The Conservative Leadership
This morning, David Cameron will answer Questions to the Prime Minister for the last time of his premiership. In the afternoon, he will attend on HM The Queen, tender his resignation and advise Her Majesty to invite Mrs Teresa May to form a government. He will have paid the price for failing to win the EU Referendum Vote and it will be interesting to see how he will be remembered.
After being invited by Her Majesty to form a Government and accepting, Mrs May will return to No 10 Downing Street. She may make a statement to the press on her return and she will then start work on the formation of her Ministry and it is expected that this will take most of Thursday and Friday. As set out in this piece on the Conservative Home blog, it is very clear that Mrs May has always been a “One Nation Conservative”: “The early glimpses of May’s policy agenda show a deep enthusiasm for One Nation interventionism“.
The newspapers are full of the usual guff and prognostications about who will be appointed to what positions – I think it may be more sensible to wait and see. Mrs May will probably have one or more surprises in store. I shall be particularly interested to see what, if any, portfolio might be given to the Poison Dwarf aka Michael Gove and/or to the Clown Boris Johnson who played such a part in ensuring the failure of the Referendum. There ought to be some retribution meted out to these two. It will be necessary to have some of the “Vote Leave” supporters brought into the government to reunite the Party but it ought to be possible to do that without the two principal malefactors.
Imminent Future Events
There will be a debate and a vote on 18th July on the question of renewing Trident. That was put on the House of Commons schedule by David Cameron.
It is thought the first cabinet meeting of the May government will be on Tuesday 19th July and on 20th July Mrs May will answer Prime Minister’s Questions for the first time.
Unless there are changes, the House of Commons will adjourn for the Summer Recess on 21st July and return on 5th September. On 5th October, Mrs May will deliver her first address as Prime Minister to the Conservative Party Conference.
On 20th October there will be the first EU Council Meeting of Mrs May’s Premiership.
The Labour Leadership
The split between Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Members of Parliament gets worse with the National Executive Committee ruling yesterday that the Leader of the Opposition does not need nominations from the Parliamentary Party to run again for leader. See this in the Guardian: “Labour executive rules Jeremy Corbyn must be on leadership ballot“. See also this in the Guardian’s opinion pages: “Eyes down, apocalypse bingo players: Labour’s Jedi council has spoken“.
It seems very possible that when Parliament reassembles after the summer recess there will be no effective Labour opposition. Labour presently has 230 Members in Parliament and, as the 2nd largest Party, it forms the official opposition. If, for example, 200 Labour MP’s were to leave the Labour Party and re-form as (say) the “Independent Labour Party”, they would become the official opposition.
The Referendum Petition is to be debated in Westminster Hall on 5th September 2015 at 4.30 pm. It is unlikely that this will lead to anything.
This BBC Report is of interest: “‘Cold, competent and determined’: How Europe sees Britain’s new PM“. It is plainly the case that, although this will upset the Commission, Teresa May will first seek to have discussions with the other EU leaders and seek to ascertain what might be on offer. There will be no instant triggering of the withdrawal process. Hopefully, that might make resolution of the various applications for judicial review rather easier.