1.30 am Leave is leading by 3, 0127. This is rather depressing.
(1) The Gibraltar result: 95.9% for Remain on a turnout of 83.5% was entirely expected. Gibraltar needs the protection of the EU to prevent retaliation by Spain against Gibraltar’s desire to remain a British territory.
(2) The results in the North East of England – Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Sunderland and Hartlepool were also as expected by this blog. The devastation of the industrial base in the North East from the 1950s to date and the failure of successive governments to do much about it has a cost. Add to that the fact that the Home Office has shipped large numbers of asylum seekers to the North East (in order to pay less for their housing) results in a deep rooted dislike of anything proposed by a Conservative government.
2.30 am Remain is leading but it’s very close only 117,065 ahead.
(1) Scotland and Northern Ireland appear to have Remain ahead while Wales has Leave ahead.
(2) Inner London seems to be coming out for Remain at over 70%.
3.30 am Leave is leading by 319,950 – with less than a 2% margin.
(1) Scotland and Northern Ireland appear to be backing Remain. Leave is ahead in Wales with 4 results to declare. England presently has Leave ahead outside of London with 186 results to declare. Depressing.
Even more depressing when Nigel Farrage comes on the box claiming a UKIP victory and speaking of the UK’s “Independence Day”.
John Curtis, the BBC’s polling expert considers that 16.8 million votes are required to win the Referendum. Leave now has 11,274,488 votes and Remain has 10,684,775 votes. Still 108 results to declare including Birmingham and a fair number of London boroughs.
At 4.40, David Dimbleby announces that the BBC forecast is that the UK will vote to Leave. It is reported that the £ sterling and the Euro have both weakened significantly against the US Dollar. It feels like the chickens are coming home to roost.
4.50. Keith Vaz MP on the BBC. Very shocked. “It will be catastrophic for our country, for Europe and for the rest of the world”.
4.55. Scottish Government spokesman briefly takes the expected Scottish position.
5.10 C. Umunna MP – “This is a seismic result for our country.”
5.15. Pound drops to levels not seen since 1985.
“Dies Irae – Dies Illa”