Referendum Day

Today is Referendum Day

Polls are open between 7.00 am and 10.00 pm

Yesterday’s  Polls

 Date  Leave %  Remain%  Don’t Know  Pollster  Method
22 June 42 48 11 ComRes online
22 June 45 45 10 YouGov online
22 June 45 44 11 Opinium online
22 June 43 41 16 TNS online

 The polls suggest the result is too close to call.  Interestingly, one  polling organisation asked people how they would feel after the result.  Some 41% of people said a Leave victory would cause them anxiety compared to 33% for a Remain victory.

Betting

William Hill:  UK Remain:   2/9  [prev 2/7]    –  UK Leave: 3/1 [prev 13/5]  –  Scotland Leave: 10/1

In Memoriam – Jo Cox MP

The late Jo Cox MP was shot and stabbed in her Yorkshire Constituency last Thursday.  Memorial events took place around the world yesterday.   Jo Cox’s last tweet read “Immigration is a legitimate concern, but it is not a good reason to leave the EU”.

People may have regard to that today.

Sterling

The currency markets are holding their breath with forecasters expecting the pound to slump below $1.30 in the event of a Leave result or jump to near $1.50 with a Remain result.  From about  08:00 am tomorrow trading will start in the City of London.

It is known that several fund managers have commissioned their own private polls.   If the outcome looks to be “Leave” a sharp fall in sterling is expected.  If the result looks to be “Remain” it is likely that sterling will rise.

After the Polls Close

After polls close at 22:00 BST, sealed ballot boxes will be collected and transported to the count venue for each of the 382 local counting areas.  These represent all 380 local government area in England, Scotland and Wales, plus one each for Northern Ireland and Gibraltar.

There will not be a broadcasters’ exit poll.  This is because pollsters use previous election results and this is not possible for the referendum.  YouGov will be doing an “on the day” poll which may give some indication of the mood.  This will be released at 10 pm.

Area results will then be declared throughout the night, along with regional results from 11 regional counts.  The final result will be declared by the Chief Counting Officer from Manchester Town Hall and that is expected “around breakfast time” on Friday.

The BBC will have a results programme starting at 21.55 pm and hosted (of course) by David Dimbleby  which will continue throughout the night until Victoria Derbyshire and Andrew Neill take over on Friday morning.   The other broadcasters will be doing similar shows.

Well, I’m off to vote:

Remain

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