Let us remember her

5 days to Referendum Day – Campaigning Resumes

JoeCox
Jo Cox MP  – RIP

Today there will be religious services commemorating the late Jo Cox MP

Both Houses of Parliament will sit tomorrow for tributes to the late Jo Cox MP

A Change of Tone ?

It is hoped the last days of the campaign will be less toxic:  See this from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg: Will killing of an MP change EU debate tone?

It is the biggest political decision we’ve been asked to make for decades, so it is not surprising that the campaign has been intense, but few in Westminster expected the debate over the EU to be so vicious. But the MP’s death hasn’t just halted the contest, it’s transformed the political mood in one moment.”

Polls

BBC Poll Tracker:   45% Remain – 42% Leave – 13% – Don’t Know. 

FT Poll Tracker:      44% Remain – 46% Leave

There seems to have been a slight movement back towards Remain over the last few days.

 Date  Leave %  Remain%  Don’t Know  Pollster  Method
18 June 42 45 13 Survation Phone
17 June 43 44 13 YouGov online
17 June 44 44 12 Opinium online
16 June 44 42 14 YouGov online

The key question is whether it will continue.

 Betting

William Hill:  UK Remain:  2/7 [prev 1/2]   –  UK Leave 5/2 [prev 8/1] –  Scot Leave 10/1

 The difference from the odds yesterday seems to mirror the movement in the polls.

The Key Protagonists in the Sunday Papers

Boris Johnson

Boris2Clown Boris is interviewed in the Sun on Sunday: “Boris Johnson gives his vision of post-Brexit Britain in rallying cry for independence”  in which he is reported as saying:

Later this week we’ll have a once in a lifetime opportunity. This is our moment when the British people take centre stage in history.  The eyes of Europe will be on us and hundreds of millions of people will be praying that we do the right thing and vote for change.  If we do this, we’ll be speaking up for democracy not only in Britain but throughout Europe and it will be a fine thing that will echo through the ages.

There’s a lot more along those lines.  The only problem for Boris is that Sky News has a video of Boris Johnson:  “Video Reveals Boris Supported EU Single Marketshowing Boris Johnson advocating staying in the Single Market in 2013.  Of course he is saying the very opposite today in the Sun on Sunday.

A perusal of Clown Boris’s Wikipedia entry might lead one to conclude that Boris’s views on any subject change whenever he sees an opportunity to promote Boris Johnson.

Michael Gove

gove2Poison Dwarf  Gove is in the more up market Sunday Telegraph: “Brexit won’t cause recession, Michael Gove says, as David Cameron warns there will be ‘no turning back“.  The only problem for Poison Dwarf Gove is that he cites absolutely no authority for his assertion that there will be no recession as a consequence of Brexit.  All the major national and international institutions who have to worry about recession: the Treasury, the Bank of England, The Institute for Fiscal Studies, the OECD, the World Bank and the Interational Monetary Fund all say that Brexit is dangerous. See  this Financial Times article: “IMF says Brexit will permanently lower UK incomes“.

It is worth noting some comments in the article: (1)  the other EU countries at risk from Brexit are likely to be  Ireland, Malta, Cyprus, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Belgium; and  (2) There is the possibility though that Eurozone member states could benefit from the relocation of financial services jobs from London and other UK financial centres to cities such as Frankfurt and Paris.

Nigel Farrage

FarageThus far, a first persual of the Sunday papers has not revealed any statement from the dreadful UKIP man.However, we should remember that in April of this year Farrage encouraged the Gove-Johnson Vote Leave to focus on immigration issues: see this BBC report: EU referendum: Nigel Farage tells Leave campaigners to focus on migration.  “He urged them to “get onto the other side of the pitch” and start making a more assertive case over immigration. He said: “Where the enemy are at their absolute weakest is on this whole question of open door migration, the effect that it’s had on the lives of ordinary Britons over the course of the last decade and the threat that it poses given the new terror and security threat that we face in the west. I’m sorry to say that at the moment they don’t appear to have done it.

David Cameron

The Prime Minister was in the Telegraph  yesterday with an op-ed: “An abject, self-imposed humiliation awaits if this proud, important country walks away ” which was not bad at all and today he had a piece in the Sunday Times: “No turning back, warns Cameron“(£) in which he not only repeated  the arguments for ‘Remain’  but took  issue with Gove and Johnson whom he compared to “irresponsible parents who put their families in a dangerous car” and accusing them of lying in their campaign literature.  A good read if you are prepared to pay the access charges or buy the paper version.

The Andrew Marr Show had Jeremy Corbyn and the Poison Dwarf, and the guests reviewing the papers were Sir Nicholas Soames, Kate Howey, a Labour Brexiteer and Jane Moore.  The recording is on BBC iplayer.

Conclusion

Whether you wish to be part of the European Community or you are minded to vote Leave.  Nothing today gives you any good reason to change your mind.

 

 

 

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