Referendum 11 days to go
It is reported that over 430,000 people applied to register during the extended period. UKIP and the Vote Leave campaign were opposed to the extension fearing that these late registrants may largely be younger people and more likely to vote remain. Aaron Banks, the obnoxious multimillionaire who has funded UKIP and Leave.EU, has said he is considering legal action. It is, however, not the first time he has made such a threat without following through.
FT Poll Tracker: Remain 45% – Leave 43% = Don’t Know 12%
BBC Poll Tracker: Remain 43 – Leave 42 = Don’t Know 15%
William Hill Odds: Remain: 4/11– Leave: 9/4 – Scotland Vote Leave: 10/1
The polls are too close to give any reliable indication of the outcome. There is a consistent difference between polls conducted on-line and those conducted over the telephone, with telephone polls giving about a 10% higher figure for Remain. As yet, there is no really satisfactory explanation for this. For example, an ORB telephone poll on 5th June put Remain at 52% while a YouGov poll the following day put Remain at only 43%.
More importantly, a poll by ORB for the Independent published on Friday 10th June and reported also by Reuters gives Leave a 10 point lead and that must be worrying for the Remain campaign. And worrying not only for the campaign but also for the financial markets as the Financial Times reported: Pound under severe pressure on latest EU exit poll (£). Sterling slid against the US$ by 1.4% and against the Euro by 0.8% – a two month low.
Also on Friday, the Guardian had what may be an important indicator: “Andy Burnham sounds alarm at ‘very real prospect’ of Brexit”. In the piece Burnham says that Labour’s campaigning, had failed to reach out to traditional Labour voters and concerns about immigration are driving them to back Leave.
These are just a few of the indicators that the result of Gove and Johnson adopting the UKIP approach and campaigning on the immigration issue while ignoring the economic ones may be putting the prospects of a vote to Remain succeeding. It is hardly surprising the the betting odds on the referendum are moving – there are no poor bookies.
The Gove – Johnson et al – Conspiracy
It is worth re-reading what the former MP Jerry Hayes had to say about Boris Johnson as recently as 21st February 2016: “Boris is a Copper Bottomed, Double Dealing Hypocritical Little Shit. The Press will destroy him”. He is not the only critic of the Vote Leave Clown. The Spectator published this little demolition piece by Nick Cohen in February 2016: Boris Johnson: Everything about you is phoney.
Mr Hayes has also been pretty vitriolic about another Brexiteer, Chris Grayling, see this report in the Daily Mail: ‘Chris Grayling is a s*** that needs to be flushed’. Grayling was at the time the Poison Dwarf’s predecessor as Secretary of State for Justice and his then proposals for “reform” of the judicial review process were quite justifiably very strongly criticised by those who know about such things. It was entirely understandable that this paticular Brexiteer’s future would be questioned in this New Statesman article in December 2015: Is Chris Grayling the most incompetent member of the government?
These two are but putty in the hands of the Poison Dwarf, Michael Gove, whose standing with the public on 16th July 2014 was revealed in this article: Michael Gove picked as Britain’s most unpopular politician. Gove has already stated on national television during this campaign the he is not standing for David Cameron’s job. So he and the other Brexiteers are pushing poor Boris out as their “Mr Nice Guy” because the Clown has a television personality.
But whether the majority of the electorate will feel able to trust this sorry lot to manage the most vital national issues in contention in this campaign remains to be seen in just a few days’ time.
On this auspicious day, the 90th Official Birthday of HM the Queen one’s mind natrually goes to the National Anthem and on reviewing the press this evening a fragment of the 2nd verse spring to mind:
Confound their politics,
Frustrate their knavish tricks,
On Thee our hopes we fix,
God save us all!
Mr Hayes is a fairly successful member of the bar and, doubtless he will recognise that while his characterisation of Clown Boris may be spot on, the assertion that the press will destroy him is a classic non sequitur.
Unfortunately, the UK press, is quite liberally populated with shits – starting with a number of proprietors. Both Gove and Johnson have many well-established connections with the press.
However, the Learned Mr Hayes has a much more recent post on the ITV Debate: AMBER RUDD A STAR IS BORN.