Referendum – 21 days to go
If you are not registered to vote – you must register by 7th June 2016
FT Poll Tracker: Remain 46% – Leave 43% = Don’t Know 11%
William Hill Odds: Remain: 2/7 Leave: 13/5 – Scotland Vote Leave: 10/1
The Pound is Going Down
Sterling is still slumping after recent Brexit polls – the FT reports that the two-week fall in the value of sterling is the result of several exit polls suggesting that the Remain lead has evaporated. In yesterday’s post it was suggested that this slide in the exchange rate might have a negative impact on future holidays overseas and that it might be worthwhile to buy US$ US Dollars or € Euros before the rates fall further.
The FT also has a very good guide to how a Brexit would have to be managed: What a British divorce from the EU would look like – How any break-up is carried out will have a decisive impact on Britain for generations. It is well worth reading.
A very important observation in the article is this:- “How this complex divorce is negotiated and carried out would have a decisive impact on Britain’s economy and its place in the world for generations. It could lead to an orderly transition or a much more unpredictable process, buffeted by political pressure, volatile markets and the clash of national interests.”
The Daily Telegraph also has some very pertinent observations from Ambrose Pritchard – “Leave camp must accept that Norway model is the only safe way to exit EU ”
Vote Leave promises an Aussie-Style Points Based Immigration System
The Tory Poison Dwarf, Michael Gove together with Boris Johnson and Priti Patel et al have announced that Vote Leave would seek to institute a points-based system for all migrants coming to the UK – including those coming from the EU.
Australia is well known for having introduced this kind of system. Of course Australia started off with a “Keep Australia White “ immigration policy and even today it removes asylum seekers to camps offshore in Papua New Guinea. Not the sort of policy Conservatives ought to seek to emulate – at least not after the Smethwick by election.
Incidentally, it is not yet known which offshore island the Poison Dwarf and his familiars have in mind for asylum seekers. There is no doubt that this announcement that the UK “will pull up the drawbridge against all bloody foreigners” will resonate well with certain sorts of voter – those one finds tending to vote BNP – UKIP and the like. But it is also absolutely certain that the adoption of such a policy would put totally paid to any UK participation in the Single Market of the EU after Brexit since free movement of labour is one of the fundamental policies of the Union together with the free movements of goods, services and capital. The Dutch Prime Minister has already warned that there will be retaliation if the UK chooses to adopt such a policy and other EU Heads of Government are likely come out in support of that proposition.
As Ambrose Pritchard points out in his article in the Daily Telegraph (above) advocating the Norway model as the only sane Brexit mechanism:-
“Leavers know that if they gave in to these t(Norway Model) Terms, they would drive away all those other voters who want to slam the door on immigration. So the campaign has been evasive, hoping to muddle through until June 23 with the broadest possible church.”
More to Come
Is Vote Leave saving the biggest push until last? She makes very valid points and in particular this:-
“What’s also becoming more intriguing by the day is how the Vote Leave’s top team, notably Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, seem to be announcing policies for post-referendum government that of course, does not yet exist. What on earth can they be up to?
With this whole campaign intricately laced with Tory leadership ambitions, it’s not very hard to imagine. The messages from the Out team come from politicians who fully expect big roles in the aftermath of the vote, whatever happens.”
Have a look at this thread on the Conservative Home Blog – Gove tops our next party leader survey for the third month running.
One should beware of a Referendum followed by Anschluss – remember Austria in 1938.