Economists and Brexit

Referendum – 22 days to go

If you are not registered to vote – you must register by 7th June 2016

You can register on line – click here

FT Poll Tracker: Remain 46% – Leave 43%  =  Don’t Know 11%

William Hill Odds:  Remain: 1/5  Leave: 7/2 -long shot:  Scotland Vote Leave: 10/1

The City of London – Hedging Brexit – Post Brexit Travel

The Financial Times reports that Hedge Funds and Investment Banks are paying £500,000 or more for private polling on Referendum Day.  Apparently a private poll as lawful as long as it is not published before the polls close.  The private polls will give advance knowledge of the likely impact on the exchanges.

A significant move in sterling is awaiting  the result of the vote, with a modest rise expected if Remain wins and a sharp drop anticipated if there is a vote for Brexit.  The Guardian reports Goldman Sachs as estimating that Sterling could lose 20% in value if the UK votes for Brexit.

In other words: (1) a vote to leave will help the fat cat speculators of the City to make a killing, and  (2) if you are planning a holiday abroad later this year you may find it more expensive.

This Independent page tells you how much you have lost since the start of the year and how you might take steps to guard against losing more.  This Telegraph page – What leaving the EU could cost travellers also provides a lot of useful information for future travel post Brexit.

This Financial Times page  sets out in some detail how Brexit will affect the City which is today the premier market for the whole of Europe – but is likely to be significantly weakened if the UK leaves the EU.

While he was Mayor of London, Boris Johnson appointed an economist  on the Mayor of London’s payroll.  That gentleman, Dr G. Lyons,  is now one of the economists working for Vote Leave.

The  GLA has published a Draft Economic Evidence Base 2016.  (Warning:  the document has 402 pages) and there is quite a lot of other material around setting out the importance of the City of London as the most important financial centre in the EU.

The Economists for Brexit have published a pamphlet setting out the Vote Leave Economic Case.  It has 45 pages of which just 3 pages (21-23)  are by Dr Lyons and which assure the reader that everything will be OK in the event of Brexit.    The Financial Times has published an article entitled What are the economic consequences of Brexit? which may assist in evaluating the bland assurances of Dr Lyons and his friends at Economists for Brexit.


A warning slightly adapted from cigarette packs might be appropriate:

Brexit Can Seriously Damage your Wealth!




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